Jaiprakash Ranjan, New Delhi. After the assembly elections, whichever party’s government is formed in Punjab, Uttarakhand, Goa and Uttar Pradesh, it is certain that the new governments will have to make a lot of effort to bring their state’s economy back on track. The budget documents of these states during the last four-five years show that in addition to containing the rising debt liabilities, the succeeding governments will have to increase the revenue sources and bring about a drastic improvement in the quality of investment.
Not only this, special attention will have to be paid to the expenditure in the areas of social development like education and health in the total expenditure, only then the social condition of these states will improve. At least in the last four-five years, the burden of external debt on Uttar Pradesh and Punjab has increased significantly and the succeeding governments will have to work harder on debt management. For the next five-seven years, these states have to repay the huge outstanding debt.
A study report is released every year by the Reserve Bank on the budget of the states, which is considered to be the most accurate report to know the financial condition of the states and the state of their government’s economic management. Certainly, the way the corona epidemic has affected the country’s economy in the year 2020-21 and in the year 2021-22, its effect is also visible on the economic condition of these states.
The debt burden on Uttar Pradesh, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Manipur and Goa has increased unexpectedly due to deteriorating revenue position. The next governments will have to bear the brunt of the speed with which these states have taken loans, as the repayment will start after a few years.
If Uttar Pradesh is seen, then during the year 2019-20 to the year 2021-22 (Budgetary Assessment Data for the year 2021-22), it has taken a total of Rs 1,72,703 crore of new loans, whereas during this period only Rs 42,120 crores of old loans have been taken. has paid to Punjab took a loan of Rs 71,430 crore and repaid Rs 27,363 crore during this period. Uttarakhand took a loan of Rs 12,500 crore and repaid Rs 2,441 crore.
The RBI’s assessment also says that as of March 2021, Uttar Pradesh will have to pay about 48 percent of the total outstanding loan amount within the next seven years, while the Uttarakhand government will have to pay 57.8 percent of the outstanding loan during this period. Have to do Punjab will have to pay 43 percent, Goa 58 percent and Manipur 43 percent in these years.
By the way, the situation is more or less the same in other states and in other words, it will not be easy for the governments of these states to meet the debt burden without significantly increasing the revenue collection. In this report of RBI, it also reveals how much importance has been given to social development by the current governments of these states.
The share of expenditure in the education sector in the annual budget of Uttar Pradesh has come down from 14.8 per cent to 12.5 per cent in the last five years. During this period, the share of expenditure on health and family welfare has been estimated to increase from 5.3 per cent to 5.9 per cent.
Talking about Punjab, the share of education in total expenditure has come down from 13 percent to 10 percent in five years and the share of health sector has come down from 3.8 percent to 3.4 percent, in Uttarakhand the share of education has come down from 18.1 percent to 17.3 percent. But the BJP government here has increased the share of health sector in the total expenditure from 3.8 percent to 6.1 percent.
If we look at the record of the tenure of the last three governments of Uttar Pradesh, 38-39 percent of the total expenditure has been allocated for social development, that is, whether the government is of any party, there has been no big jump in the funds allocated for health or education. In Uttarakhand in the year 2009-10, the share of funds allocated for one-time social development was increased from 38 per cent to 42 per cent and since then it is almost around the same.