New Delhi, PTI. Good news is coming on the GDP front. The official growth rate of gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated at 7.8 per cent year-on-year in the September quarter of the current fiscal. This has been claimed in a report prepared by the economists of HDFC Bank. According to this report, in the year 2021-22, real GDP will grow at the rate of 9.4 percent. However, it is expected to come down to 7.5 per cent in the year 2022-23.
hit hard by the pandemic
In the year 2020-21, a contraction of 7.3 percent was seen in the GDP due to the strong hit of the epidemic. For the year 2021-22, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has forecast a growth of 9.5 percent, while it has been said to slow down to 7.8 percent in the year 2022-23. In fact, the condition of the economy was not good in the year 2020-21, due to which the base for the current financial year is low and this low base is being cited as the main reason behind the high growth rate this year.
20% jump in GDP
In the first quarter of the current financial year, there was a jump of about 20 percent in the GDP due to the low base. As far as the official figures for the second quarter ended September are concerned, it is expected on November 30.
In this report of HDFC Bank, it has been estimated that the low base of last year will be the main reason behind the projected growth rate of 7.8 percent in the second quarter. However, the impact of the pick-up in economic activity will also be visible in this quarter. In July-September, 2020, there was a contraction of 16.9 percent in GDP.
The report says that economic activity, supported by suppressed demand and the lifting of travel restrictions, returned to pre-epidemic conditions in early August and has remained strong since then. According to this report, in the September quarter, The growth rate of agriculture sector will be 4 percent, while it will be 6.3 percent in the industry sector and 8.6 percent for the service sector. If we look at the gross value addition point of view, then the growth rate in the second quarter can be 7.3 percent.