New Delhi, IAS. Big news for India. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has also said that India is the world’s fastest growing major economy with a growth rate of 9.5 per cent in this fiscal (Fy 2021-22) and 8.5 per cent in the next financial year. The economy will survive. The IMF’s World Economic Outlook put out GDP growth projections made in July for India, whose Covid-battered economy shrank by 7.3 per cent in the previous fiscal.
In July, when India received the second wave of Kovid-19 Covid 19), the IMF cut its forecast of 12.5 per cent in April to 3 per cent, before the resurgence of the pandemic. Haidt’s long-term forecast for India’s GDP growth in 2026 is 6.1 percent.
In the WEO tables, China followed India with 8 per cent this year and 5.6 per cent for next year – a decrease of 0.1 per cent for both years from the forecast in July. Britain came second this year with a growth of 6.8 percent, followed by France with 6.5 percent and the US with six percent.
The global economy is projected to grow by 5.9 per cent in 2021 and 4.9 per cent in 2022 – 0.1 per cent lower than the July forecast for 2021. “The downward revision for 2021 reflects a decline for advanced economies partly due to supply disruptions and for low-income developing countries, primarily due to worsening pandemic dynamics,” the WEO said.
IMF chief economic expert Gita Gopinath said in her proposal to the WEO, “Global recovery continues, but the momentum has weakened due to the pandemic.” He said that the recorded global COVID-19 death toll due to the highly transmissible delta variant has approached 5 million and health risks abound. The outbreak of the pandemic has been prolonged in critical links of global supply chains – more supply disruptions than expected, further fueling inflation in many countries. He cautioned that overall, risks to economic prospects have increased and policy tradeoffs become more complex.