There was a fear of defeat in Ayodhya, that’s why Yogi in Gorakhpur: High command wanted help in the name of Ram temple in the whole of UP, but Yogi persuaded him to win in Gorakhpur.

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BJP has surprised with its very first list by announcing that CM Yogi Adityanath will contest from Gorakhpur city. The reason for shock is that till now it was almost certain that he would enter the election battle from Ayodhya. If sources are to be believed, the party high command had the same intention. Had a fanatical Hindutva face like Yogi descended from Ayodhya, the hope of polarization of votes in the entire state was high.

But Yogi himself wanted to ensure his victory first by getting down from his stronghold Gorakhpur. Actually, Ayodhya is such a seat, where despite the fact that 93.23% of the population is Hindu, the victory of BJP has not been decided. In 2012 this seat was won by SP, in 2017 it came to BJP in Modi-Yogi wave. It is not yet decided what the equations will be this time.

Understand from the math of vote share, why Ayodhya is unsafe for Yogi…

In 2012, apart from SP, BJP and BSP, other parties also got about 28% votes.
In the 2012 elections, Pawan Pandey of SP won. Lallu Singh of BJP and Vedprakash Gupta, who fought on BSP ticket, stood third. The vote share of other parties and independents was also decent.

In the Modi-Yogi wave of 2017 the loss of SP-BSP is less, the rest of the parties are clean
The vote share of the 2017 election shows that the vote bank of the SP has not shifted much. BSP’s vote share increased slightly. But in the Modi-Yogi wave, all the other parties and independents got wiped out. Got only 5.92% votes. That is, 22% votes decreased compared to 2012, which went directly to BJP.

This time the dominance of SP is more, the equations could have deteriorated

  • Had the Brahmins been happy in Ayodhya, the victory of the BJP was sure. There are 70 thousand Brahmins, 28 thousand Kshatriyas in the urban area.
  • Along with 27 thousand Muslims, there are 50 thousand Dalits. Along with this, the number of Yadav voters in the urban area is 40 thousand.
  • Had Yogi descended, the competition would have been tough and he would have had to spend more time here, because the current SP MLA Pawan Pandey has more dominance here.
  • Ayodhya Sadar seat seems to be coming out of the hands of BJP after Yogi’s removal from here.

Public relations had started for Yogi in Ayodhya

Along with BJP workers, saints, sadhus and people associated with the temple had started public relations amid speculations that Yogi would contest the election from Ayodhya Sadar Vidhan Sabha. Door-to-door contact was being made by forming a team of 8 to 12 people. The sages and saints were asking the devotees coming to the temple to vote in favor of Yogi.

Traders were also continuously campaigning in favor of Yogi. A permanent office of the BJP was made at the ward level. From where the people living in each ward can be saved in favor of Yogi.

Yogi himself wanted Gorakhpur, otherwise the whole district was afraid of losing his hands.
If Yogi Adityanath had stayed out of the Gorakhpur region, there was a possibility of an impact on the urban as well as the surrounding 17 assembly seats. Along with Gorakhpur rural, the seat of Pipraich, Chauri Chaura was also seen getting stuck. In Kushinagar, due to the separation of Swami Prasad Maurya, the seat of Padrauna, Tamkuhiraj, Fazilnagar was also seen to be captured by the SP. Because, here along with the Congress, Maurya is dominant. In Sant Kabir Nagar, the seat of Khalilabad was seen getting out of hand in three assembly seats.

Caste math doesn’t always work in Ayodhya, this was the fear
The caste math of Ayodhya assembly constituency has always been messy. Caste equation never worked here in victory or defeat. Brahmin majority In this area only three Brahmin MLAs were elected and whenever Brahmin candidates won, Brahmin voters’ contribution to their victory was negligible. All three Brahmin MLAs belonged to the socialist camp. Seven times Brahmin candidates were defeated here, out of which twice they lost to the Punjabi (Khatri) fraternity with less vote bank.

The number of Brahmins is about 70 thousand.
Lallu Singh Kshatriya of Bharatiya Janata Party has represented Ayodhya seat the maximum number of times. While the vote of the Kshatriyas was never decisive, the Kshatriya candidates always benefited by voting in favor of one sided self-caste candidate. Surendra Pratap Singh of Congress was the first Kshatriya candidate to win the election.

The Brahmins were then considered the vote bank of the Congress. When he won the 1985 elections, the sensation wave became a major deciding factor in the favor of the Congress. The estimated number of Kshatriya voters is about 28 thousand in this area, while the number of Brahmins is about 70 thousand.

Time and again the caste equation is deteriorating
When Brijkishore Agrawal of the Vaish fraternity won the election from Bharatiya Jana Sangh for the first time in 1967, the urban population of Vaishyas was not very large. After that Vishwanath Kapoor defeated Brahmin candidate of BKD. In the 1974 elections, Ved Prakash Agrawal of Jana Sangh defeated Sant Shri Ram Dwivedi of BKD by a very small margin.

In 1977, Jaishankar Pandey contested the elections on Janata Party ticket. He belonged to the socialist camp. Brahmins were the vote bank of Congress. But in the Janata wave, he won the election despite being against the caste equation, but in the very next election he was defeated by Nirmal Khatri of Khatri fraternity limited to a few families. Then Surendra Pratap Singh won from Congress. He defeated the belligerent leader Bhagwan Jaiswal coming from the backward Vaish class of BJP.

Dalits have 50 thousand votes
The mathematics of this assembly constituency is decided by 22000 Vaishyas, 22000 Kayasthas and almost as many Nishads. Yadavs have 40 thousand votes and Muslims have about 27 thousand votes, but barring a couple of elections, they can never spoil the game. Although Dalits have 50 thousand votes, but with the help of these, nobody’s boat has been crossed, but about 18 thousand votes of Kurmis create more pressure.

Lallu Singh and Ashok Tiwari spoiled the game
In the 2007 elections, when Indra Pratap Tiwari Khabbu contested on the basis of Brahmin votes. Against him, Ashok Tiwari of BSP along with Lallu Singh spoiled his game. He lost by 6000 votes and was reduced to the base vote of SP. In the next election, Pawan Pandey of SP harvested the land made by him. However, changed circumstances eased his path with the separation of Maya Bazar, dominated by Kshatriyas, from the Ayodhya assembly constituency and managed to break the supremacy of Lallu Singh of the BJP, which has been in place since 1991.

After 18 years, any CM in UP will contest the election of MLA
CM Yogi Adityanath has been fielded from Gorakhpur, that is, a record of 18 years is going to be broken here. Actually, here last time Mulayam Singh Yadav became CM after contesting the assembly elections from Gunnaur seat. He had proved his popularity among the masses. Now the practice of becoming CM by becoming a member of the Legislative Council i.e. MLC in the 2022 assembly elections is breaking. Read full news here…

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