The political crisis of Maharashtra is now standing at an exciting juncture. Shiv Sena’s rebel leader Eknath Shinde has released the picture of 49 MLAs with him. On the other hand, Shiv Sena’s Sanjay Raut has said that we are ready to break the alliance with NCP and Congress. Just come to Shinde Mumbai and talk to Uddhav. Apart from this, there is news that BJP has sent an offer to Shinde to form the government.
The biggest question of this time is what will happen next? Next these 7 scenarios can be made…
Scenario 1: Shinde can stake claim on Shiv Sena
Eknath Shinde can become the leader of Shiv Sena Legislature Party in Guwahati itself. After this, by writing an e-mail or letter to the Speaker, you can demand to declare your faction in the assembly as the real Shiv Sena. This scenario is most likely to happen.
The Speaker’s post is vacant for 8 months in the Maharashtra Legislative Assembly. He is replaced by NCP’s Narhari Sitaram Jhirwal as deputy speaker. If NCP sticks with Uddhav, Shinde’s appeal to stake claim on Shiv Sena is more likely to hang.
Scenario-2: Shinde may stake claim to form government
Eknath Shinde can stake claim to form the government with the support of BJP in front of the governor. Governor Bhagat Singh Koshyari is battling Corona. He can instruct the Uddhav government to conduct a floor test. If there is a floor test, the ball will again go to the speaker’s court and the speaker can implicate the Shinde camp in the anti-defection law on the appeal of Shiv Sena.
Scenario-3: Thackeray may try to call MLAs to Mumbai
Only 13 MLAs are left in Uddhav’s camp. After the meeting with these MLAs, Sanjay Raut said that we are ready to break the alliance with NCP and Congress. Just come to Shinde Mumbai and talk to Uddhav. There may be a hidden motive of the Uddhav camp behind calling the rebel MLAs to Mumbai. They can try to break the rebels in their court by somehow calling them to Mumbai. This is also the last hope of the Uddhav camp.
Scenario-4: The matter may reach the Governor of Goa
Maharashtra Governor Bhagat Singh Koshyari has Corona. In such a situation, the Central Government can hand over the charge of Governor of Maharashtra to Goa Governor Sreedharan Pillai. This will serve two purposes. First, without breaking the Corona protocol, Governor Shinde will be able to parade the supporters of MLAs and secondly all this upheaval will happen in Panaji. This will reduce the chances of contact with the rebel MLAs from the Uddhav camp.
Scenario-5: The matter may reach the court
In Scenario 1 and Scenario 2, Shinde or BJP can approach the court as soon as the floor test or government formation exercise gets entangled in the assembly. In such cases, generally the High Court or the Supreme Court directs to conduct a floor test in a specified time with certain conditions. The same possibility is strongest in the case of Maharashtra as well.
Scenario-6: BJP can stake claim to form the government itself
BJP leader Devendra Fadnavis can stake claim to form the government directly with the governor himself, with the support of Shinde and the rebel MLAs. In this case also the Governor can order a floor test. Uddhav will not have enough numbers in the floor test. In this case he will lose the vote of confidence. After this, BJP can form the government with the help of the rebel MLAs of Shinde.
Scenario-7: Uddhav may resign
All the scenarios mentioned above will be possible only if Uddhav does not resign. However, the chances of Uddhav resigning are slim at the moment. If Uddhav resigns, it will be easy for Shinde and BJP. The Governor will send an invitation to the single largest party BJP to form the new government. BJP will form the new government with Shinde camp.
Apart from this, another possibility is also visible. The Shinde camp also has the support of Shiv Sena MPs. Taking all this, he can go to the Election Commission and stake claim on the symbol of Shiv Sena.
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Credit: www.bhaskar.com /